This isn't quite an answer but is too big for a comment:
MS WsFederation implements something like https://auth0.com/docs/secure/attack-protection/state-parameters#csrf-attacks.
The error message means that your application has received the 2nd half of an authentication attempt but has no memory of sending the first half.
Things that might cause this might include: someone really is trying to hack the site; a webserver dropped out of a webfarm, or an app-pool recycled, after sending the first half of an authentication request ; or a load balancer isn't configured for sticky https sessions and send the second half of the request to the wrong server, or a change in the client machine's network configuration.
If it happens a lot, I think my next step would be, discuss with the network team if you have one.